Imports of Unwrought Aluminum Alloy Fell 13.2% YoY in September, While Aluminum Scrap Imports Rose 17.7% [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

October 21 SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment

Futures: The most-traded cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract opened at the day's high of 20,420 yuan/mt overnight, hit bottom at 20,315 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 20,375 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt or 0.12% from the previous close. Trading volume was 1,650 lots, and open interest was 12,871 lots, with bears mainly reducing positions. In the short term, futures are consolidating; the medium-term moving average system is bullish, but prices are within a range. It is necessary to monitor the breakout at the 20,400-20,420 resistance level. A firm hold above could open upside room; a pullback below 20,350 warrants caution for short-term adjustment risks.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on October 20, the theoretical premium of the SMM ADC12 spot price over the most-traded cast aluminum alloy contract (AD2512) closing price at 10:15 was 625 yuan/mt.

Warrant Daily Report: On October 15, the total registered volume of cast aluminum alloy warrants was 45,011 mt, a decrease of 152 mt from the previous trading day. The total registered volume in Shanghai was 4,303 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Guangdong was 12,032 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Jiangsu was 8,590 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Zhejiang was 1,072 mt, a decrease of 152 mt from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Chongqing was 5,014 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the total registered volume in Sichuan was 0 mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Industry Dynamics: (1) Aluminum Alloy Imports and Exports: Customs data showed that unwrought aluminum alloy imports in September 2025 were 82,200 mt, down 13.2% YoY but up 15.7% MoM. Cumulative imports for January-September 2025 totaled 764,700 mt, down 14.1% YoY. Unwrought aluminum alloy exports in September 2025 were 23,500 mt, up 2.1% YoY but down 19.2% MoM. Cumulative exports for January-September 2025 totaled 197,800 mt, up 9.6% YoY. (2) Aluminum Scrap Imports: The latest customs data showed that domestic aluminum scrap imports in September 2025 were approximately 155,400 mt, up about 17.7% YoY. In terms of import source countries, the main sources for domestic aluminum scrap imports in September were Thailand, the UK, Japan, the US, and other countries and regions, with Thailand accounting for 25.5% of total domestic imports.

Aluminum Scrap Side: Spot primary aluminum prices dropped back slightly on Monday compared to the previous trading day, with the SMM A00 spot price closing at 20,930 yuan/mt. Aluminum scrap market prices were generally flat. Baled UBC was quoted in the range of 15,900-16,500 yuan/mt (tax excluded), and shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) was quoted in the range of 17,300-17,800 yuan/mt (tax excluded). Baled UBC, shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content), scrap wheel hub, and mechanical casting aluminum scrap were flat MoM. Procurement difficulties for aluminum tense scrap-based materials in Hubei became more pronounced, with prices for shredded aluminum tense scrap and mechanical casting aluminum scrap rising by 100 yuan/mt in a single day. The aluminum scrap market was expected to hold up well this week, with the mainstream price range for shredded aluminum tense scrap (priced based on aluminum content) hovering around 17,500-18,000 yuan/mt.

Regarding silicon metal: Customs data showed that silicon metal exports in September 2025 stood at 70,200 mt, down 8% MoM but up 8% YoY. Cumulative silicon metal exports from January to September 2025 reached 561,600 mt, up 2% YoY. On the import side, China's silicon metal imports in September 2025 were 1,900 mt. Cumulative imports from January to September 2025 totaled 8,600 mt, down 64% YoY.

Overseas market: Overseas ADC12 offers held steady at $2,550–2,580/mt, while domestic spot prices remained firm at 20,300–20,500 yuan/mt. The immediate import loss narrowed to around 200 yuan/mt. Local ADC12 offers in Thailand (excluding tax) were at 83 baht/kg.

Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the daily social inventory of secondary aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 48,978 mt on October 21, down 78 mt from the previous trading day and down 148 mt from the previous Tuesday (October 14).

Summary: Aluminum prices edged down slightly yesterday compared to the previous day, while the SMM ADC12 price held steady at 21,050 yuan/mt, lacking momentum for adjustment. The tight supply of aluminum scrap, which is unlikely to change in the short term, continues to provide solid cost support. Some enterprises faced losses due to material shortages or cost-price inversions, leading to a decline in operating rates. Meanwhile, demand resilience and low plant inventories supported prices, but caution is needed regarding the suppression of upside room from high social inventories and warrant pressure. Attention should also be paid to the impact of policy implementation on the supply side. ADC12 prices are expected to hold up well in the near term, with a focus on raw material circulation, the pace of demand recovery, and inventory changes.
 

[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not constituting decision-making advice.]